Abnormal Brackets: 2012 edition

Another year, another edition of March Madness. Abnormal Returns is once again hosting a bracket contest over at Yahoo! Sports. This year we are giving away prize packages for the top three finishers.

  1. First place: three recently published investment books including a copy of Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere (when published).
  2. Second place: two books including a copy of our new book.
  3. Third place: a copy of our new book.

It seems like every year there is more data available on the teams and match-ups for the tournament. It might even be worth it for your company to embrace March Madness. Below are some links we thought worth checking out before filling out your picks. Good luck and don’t forget to sign up!

Data and analysis

We are big fans of Nate Silver, especially when he writes about sports. Here is his model. (FiveThirtyEight, win probabilities)

Always worth checking out the rankings from Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin.

David Letscher has his own prediction model.

The LRMC Model maintained by a handful of professors at Georgia Tech is also worth a look.

Wayne Winston at mathletics shows Kentucky and Ohio State as the top two teams.

Win probabilities laid out for every team.  (Wages of Wins Journal)

The performance of teams by seed.  (EconomPic Data, mcubed)

Update:  A very cool visualization of Final Four probabilities.  (The Power Rank)


How to pick your bracket like a hedge fund manager.  (Slate)

Pick your bracket like your stocks: stick with the blue chips.  (Daily Ticker)

Using game theory to pick upsets.  (Aaron Brown)

Stop trying to pick upsets.  (The Atlantic)

When in doubt just pick teams blindfolded.  (WSJ)

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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  • Tadas ViskantaAbnormal Returns has over its seven-year life become a fixture in the financial blogosphere. Over thousands of posts we have striven to bring the best of the financial blogosphere to readers. In that time the idea of a “forecast-free investment blog” remains as useful as it did six years ago. More »

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