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Friday links: rush into bonds

“The big rush into bonds — especially high-quality, low-risk bonds such as Treasuries and government-guaranteed mortgage securities — may have created a situation in which most of today’s bond investors are bound to lose money.”  (Time also Trader’s Narrative, Money & Co.)

In this environment changing bond benchmarks is trickier than it looks.  (Accrued Interest)

Taking a look at the historical payoff from a collar strategy.  (Barron’s, Options for Rookies)

Signs that the risk-trade is returning:  a booming IPO market, active trading in Lehman Bros. bankruptcy claims.  (WSJ, Clusterstock)

Who made what in the A123 Systems (AONE) IPO.  (peHUB)

The Verisk IPO looks pretty reasonable in comparison.  (Breakingviews)

“Nowadays, Bulls should keep a wary eye on corporate buybacks.”  (Jeff Matthews)

Why the premium on the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) should continue to fall.  (IndexUniverse)

On the myth of the all-weather portfolio.  (Abnormal Returns)

“Why is it that the nefarious hedge funds, supposedly the bad boys of the financial world, came through last year’s crisis in relatively good shape?”  (Real Clear Markets)

On the state of the last 25 years of research on the cross-section of expected stock returns.  (SSRN)

“If your powers of observation are not honed, you will miss very critical details that often change the profitability of your trades significantly.”  (Anne Marie’s Trading Blog)

The price of lumber is not confirming a turn up in housing.  (The Pragmatic Capitalist also Calculated Risk)

A surge in bad loans spells trouble for regional banks in Q3.  (WSJ)

“(T)he outlays for the bailouts are a truly unfathomable amount of money. We are years away from learning the true costs — in dollars, and in future dangerous behavior encouraged by rewarding recklessness and stupidity.”  (Big Picture)

“As the government winds down its taxpayer-backed guarantees, the financial sector should be establishing its own industry-backed guarantee programs and funds, and strengthening existing ones.”  (Slate)

Goldman Sachs (GS) wins again.  (Cluserstock)

Why regulators are loathe to force the banks to offer “plain vanilla” financial products.  (Rortybomb also Ezra Klein, Free exchange)

How is Freddie Mac (FRE) handing out such big employment packages?  (footnoted)

How “our pre-Crash financial ecosystem was formed.”  (Epicurean Dealmaker)

“The Fed is moving toward the exit as they look toward the conclusion of their securities purchases programs. But it is not clear that such a move is justified by their own forecasts or the inflation/wage/employment data.”  (Economist’s View)

“The open question I have is the extent to which venture capital in the US understands our current moment, as the transition away from liquid hydrocarbons is now underway.”  (Gregor Macdonald)

Is Twitter worth a billion bucks?  (BusinessWeek, Bits)

“My biggest mistakes of the last few years are from private investments that I shunned for ‘ABSURD’ valuations.”  (Howard Lindzon)

An interview with the greenfaucet guys Chip Hanlon and Jim Slagle.  (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)

Leave it to the Chicago Cubs to make a simple sale really complicated.  (NYTimes)

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