Friday links: specific forecasts

Quote of the day

Robert Seawright, “If your investment approach requires or even includes a relevant forecast of future events, be very careful.  And the more specific the forecast, the more careful you should be.”  (Above the Market)

Chart of the day

XHB 1012 513x420 Friday links:  specific forecasts

The rally in the homebuilders has petered out.  (StockCharts Blog)

Markets

Investors piling into bonds at the expense of equities will soon rue the day.  (The Reformed Broker)

Five reasons not to be freaked out by the fiscal cliff.  (Mark Hulbert)

Time to take some equity off the table.  (Big Picture)

Strategy

Stop orders do NOT protect you from price gaps.  (Kid Dynamite)

Gatis Roze, “Inexperienced investors haven’t yet learned to write out their trading plans.”  (StockCharts Blog)

In praise of investment competitions for finance students.  (Aleph Blog)

Craig Lawson and J. M. Lawson take a deep dive into The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne’s Long-Term Investment Strategy.  (Reading the Markets)

Companies

Amazon ($AMZN) flips to a loss on a writedown of Living Social.  (WSJ, TheNextWeb, ArsTechnica)

How Apple’s hi-lo strategy is squeezing PC makers stuck in the middle.  (ReadWrite)

Apple and Amazon do not mince words when it comes to their releases.  (The Atlantic, Avondale Asset Management)

Finance

Private equity has got to put money to work: how about partial stakes in public companies?  (Term Sheet)

The valuation case for AIG ($AIG) is on much firmer ground today than it was a couple years ago.  (Felix Salmon)

The quick investment case for Blackstone ($BX).  (SumZero)

ETFs

The ETF price war is making fund selection even more complex.  (Focus on Funds)

Why the big to-do about ETF closures?  (IndexUniverse)

NAV trading would be a big (positive) change for ETFs.  (IndexUniverse)

Economy

Q3 GDP came in at 2.0%.  (Calculated Risk, Capital Spectator, Free exchange)

How illiquidity jumps from one market to the next.  (Economist)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

What you missed in our Friday morning linkfest.  (Abnormal Returns)

Mixed media

Why does the National Weather Service communicate in ALL CAPS?  (Slate)

Was the caveman diet all that protein rich?  (LiveScience)

Want to feel better?  Work out.  (ScienceBlog)

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