Monday links: junky expectations

• abnormalreturns
• August 31st, 2009

Merger Monday is back!  (Clusterstock)

Do world stock markets discount the volatility of the Shanghai market?  (Felix Salmon)

“This is why the speculative grade market has rebounded so smartly this year. After a horrendous 2008, 2009 has been a strong year in spite of climbing default because prices anticipated the Moody’s doomsday scenario.”  (Falkenblog)

“Deep-value manager Third Avenue Management Inc. is launching its first debt fund, which will invest in a concentrated portfolio across the credit spectrum.”  (WSJ also 24/7 Wall St.)

Activist hedge funds are still finding it rough going out there.  (FT)

Using JunkDEX to track the “speculative frenzy in junk financials.”  (VIX and More)

Looking for a better market parallel.  (Daily Options Report)

What have we learned in the past 25 years about what drives stock returns?  (CXO Advisory Group)

“Out of sight of most investors, who were focused on more popular, more easily understood strategies like long-short equity, managed-futures traders have become engineers of change, fusing academic research with new technology.”  (Institutional Investor)

“As a trader, I’m always putting out little fires (i.e. closing poor trades at small losses) and I’m constantly working proactively and aggressively to avoid out-of-control disasters.”  (Kirk Report)

“We contend that the current turnaround in markets and confidence has been so quick because information and news spreads so much faster now than it ever has.”  (Bespoke)

“The question is not why do markets behave irrationally but why do they ever behave rationally?”  (The Psy-Fi Blog)

Flash trading is a profitable business for Direct Edge.  (WSJ)

Do we really need Bear Stearns 2.0?  (Dealbreaker)

Companies can only cut costs for so long.  Revenues must increase to generate earnings growth.  (WSJ)

It is still too early to make a call on TARP profitability.  (NYMag, Big Picture vs. NYTimes)

“Last week’s data persuaded me to move the Econbrowser Emoticon back into neutral, signifying that I now judge overall output to be growing slowly rather than declining.”  (Econbrowser)

“(E)verywhere you see what’s being hailed as recovery, you see massive government intervention. Massive.”  (MarketBeat)

It’s well past time to put Fannie and Freddie out of their misery.  (Breakingviews)

“As sterling as his résumé is, one question is inescapable: Is [J. Christopher] Flowers a one-hit wonder as a private equity investor?”  (Fortune also Clusterstock)

Who wouldn’t get into the wind farm business given these tax incentives?  (WSJ)

Add the MUI or men’s underwear index, to your list of unconventional economic indicators.  (WashingtonPost also Free exchange, Time)

On the difficulties in putting together a list of ten books for first-year economics students.  (Mankiw Blog, EconLog)

“Fundamentals are fundamentals, and anyone arguing that they’ve changed needs a pretty good explanation for why. Social proof isn’t enough, even though it feels like it is.”  (Ezra Klein)

What might be coming in Hank Paulson‘s memoir.  (Vanity Fair)

Is Apple (AAPL) the new Microsoft (MSFT)?  (Silicon Alley Insider)

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