Tuesday links: future confidence

• abnormalreturns
• December 28th, 2010

Quote of the day

Scott Grannis, “By the time everyone recovers their confidence in the future, prices will be a lot higher than they are today.”  (Calafia Beach Pundit)

Chart of the day

The Swiss franc is at a new high against the US dollar.  (FT, chart via StockCharts)

Markets

January stock market outperformance is by no means guaranteed.  (CXO Advisory Group, MarketSci Blog)

A different look at the market’s P/E ratio.  (Crossing Wall Street)

Muni bond holders are trying to dump bonds before year-end.  (Bloomberg)

Are there still opportunities in the regional banks?  (Barron’s)

On the state of the gold bubble.  (Condor Options)

There is no end in sight to the supply of JGBs.  (Felix Salmon)

Strategy and Tactics

“In our experience getting ahead of the capital flows has been more profitable than buying what we believe to be a “cheap” stock or selling an “expensive” stock.”  (Global Macro Monitor)

Stephen Siderow, “Is the credit trade over?”  (Dealbook)

The Fly is lightening up going into year end and is sniffing around muni bonds.  (iBankCoin)

Another trader who is lightening up going into year-end.  (Joe Fahmy)

On the risks of VIX-based ETNs.  (WSJ)

The nine best new mutual funds of 2010.  (Morningstar)

How much attention should investors pay to the growth vs. value spread?  (AR Screencast)

How illiqudity can work for value investors.  (Gannon on Investing)

Companies

Are profit margins set to be squeezed in 2011?  (Pragmatic Capitalism)

Analysts love the new General Motors (GM).  (Dealbook, Money Game)

Why won’t Amazon (AMZN) provide more information to shareholders?  (24/7 Wall St.)

Technology

Is a backlash against Apple’s popularity growing?  (Jeff Matthews, Matthew Lynn)

John Gruber, “Android isn’t like Windows. “  (Daring Fireball)

What the history of the PDA tells us about the future of the smartphone.  (Asymco)

Competitors couldn’t believe Apple’s claims about the iPhone.  (Infectious Greed)

Finance

Trading in the shares of Facebook etc. are garnering increased scrutiny.  (WSJ, Dealbook)

The pork-belly contract is in danger of extinction.  (WSJ, Points and Figures)

“Many banks that are not dead today, then, could die very quickly if the housing market turns down again.”  (Lex)

In a world of high-frequency trading location matters.  (Alea)

Hedge funds are back.  (All About Alpha)

Do hedge funds get too much attention?  (NetNet)

The expert-network business is dead in the water.  (Dealbook)

How Switzerland saved its banks.  (Newsweek)

Economy

Five bearish and bullish charts.  (Pragmatic Capitalism)

Home prices continue to fall according to Case-Shiller.  (Calculated Risk)

Indeed it was a good holiday shopping period.  (Big Picture, TRB)

On the outlook for unemployment in 2011.  (Calculated Risk)

On the importance of startups to jobs growth.  (Real Time Economics, Businessweek)

Don’t expect a return to normalcy for the mortgage market in 2011.  (Atlantic Business)

China is set to become the world’s largest market for autos.  (Economist via TRB)

Just because

The 25 best movies of 2010.  (Paste Magazine)

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