Tuesday links: highly confident smart people

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Quote of the day

Wes Gray, “(L)isten to really smart people, since it is entertaining, makes me feel more intelligent, and gives me overconfidence for multiple predictions; however, avoid trading based on the projections of highly confident smart people.”  (Turnkey Analyst)

Chart of the day

SPYEarnings 1113 624x366 Tuesday links:  highly confident smart people

The S&P 500 is trading around 15x forward earnings.  (Dr. Ed’s Blog)

Markets

Hedge funds are short crude oil.  (The Short Side of Long)

Hard to say that small caps are cheap relative to large caps.  (Mebane Faber)

The stock market is still in a cyclical mood.  (Crossing Wall Street)

Strategy

Why it is hard to beat the market’s own asset allocation.  (Capital Spectator)

Smart beta comes to currencies.  (Institutional Investing)

Companies

Qualcomm ($QCOM) is a misunderstood stock.  (Vitaliy Katsenelson)

Arnold Kling, “If you start a new enterprise, it is a good idea to start small and build incrementally.”  (Arnold Kling)

Finance

Why are takeover premiums falling?  (WSJ)

The Carlyle Group ($CG) is pushing farther into the hedge fund business.  (Dealbook)

SAC Capital has some sweet real estate.  (NetNet)

Funds

ETFs are the perfect vehicle for tax-loss harvesting.  (Matt Hougan)

How to spot a bad bond fund.  (Morningstar)

Economy

Welcome to the high/low economy.  (Crossing Wall Street)

Building permits are on the rise.  (Bespoke, Calculated Risk)

On the (dim) prospects for a Fed exit.  (Pragmatic Capitalism)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

What you may have missed in our Monday linkfest.  (Abnormal Returns)

Mixed media

The FDA has it wrong on mass genetic testing.  (Marginal Revolution contra Quartz)

GoldieBlox has it all wrong on “fair use.”   (Felix Salmon)

You’re wrong if you think that Black Friday sale is all that great a deal.  (WSJ)

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