Tuesday links: historical evidence

• abnormalreturns
• August 16th, 2011

Quote of the day

Carl Richards, “If you approach investing from the perspective of the historical evidence, then temporary declines, no matter how terrifying, are just part of the deal. While this doesn’t make investing easy, it does make it easier. ” (Bucks Blog)

Chart of the day

Wal-Mart ($WMT) is losing its low price edge (or not).  (WSJ, Crossing Wall Street, MarketBeat)

Markets

A rally led by the worst performers.  (Bespoke, Global Macro Monitor)

Stocks are on sale.  (Crossing Wall Street)

Junk bond spreads are pricing in a mild recession.  (MarketBeat)

What would happen to earnings in a recession?  (FT Alphaville)

A divergence between rail car loadings and transportation stocks.  (Dr. Ed’s Blog)

Voter sentiment and markets move generally in line with each other.  (CXO Advisory Group)

Is there value in the tanker stocks?  (Climateer Investing)

Strategy

High volatility is not necessarily the best time for buy-writes.  (Tyler’s Trading)

Ten high conviction buys from the “ultimate stock pickers.”  (Morningstar)

Frank Voisin, “Protect yourself first.”  (Frank Voisin)

The best way to invest is one that fits with your personality and needs.  (Random Roger)

What to do when the risk-free rate is no longer risk free?  (All About Alpha)

The challenge of using multiple financial advisors.  (InvestmentNews)

Google

Google ($GOOG) made the Motorola Mobility ($MMI) deal out of a position of weakness.  (Daring Fireball, FOSS Patents via @asymco)

Google had better get rid of Motorola’s hardware pronto.  (SAI, ibid)

The deal is either “brilliant, or really, really stupid.”  (TechCrunch)

For better or worse, Google is now “Larry Page Inc.“  (SAI)

If it is all about patents, why didn’t Google simply buy InterDigital ($IDCC)?  (Dealbook)

Google is now likely to lose the support of other handset makers for Android.  (WSJ contra SplatF)

Finance

Capital One ($COF) is relying on acquisitions for growth.  (Deal Journal)

Fitch sticks with a AAA rating for the USA.  (FT Alphaville, MarketBeat)

The idea that you need to provide tax preferences for carried interest to induce activity is a crock.  (Obsolete Dogma)

Might private equity step up to the plate and start hiring?  (Term Sheet)

13-Fs

Bruce Berkowitz is doubling down on troubled financials while John Paulson bails.  (Clusterstock, Deal Journal)

What is happening in the Berkshire Hathaway ($BRKB) equity portfolio.  (MarketBeat, Bloomberg)

David Einhorn is adding to his Microsoft ($MSFT) position.  (Deal Journal)

Funds

Bruce Berkowitz as an example of why it is tough to manage money under the public eye.  (The Reformed Broker)

A nice summary of the rapidly filling ETF pipeline.  (ETFdb)

McKinsey on the increasingly competitive ETF industry.  (FT, MarketBeat, ETF Trends)

On the challenges of offering hedge fund strategies in a mutual fund wrapper.  (FINalternatives)

Global

The SNB really wants to get the value of the Swiss franc down.  (FT Alphaville, WSJ)

European banks are at risk of further funding issues.  (naked capitalism)

China keeps buying Treasury securities.  (EconomPic Data)

Economy

Industrial production came in ahead of expectations.  (Calculated Risk, Modeled Behavior, Bespoke)

Why did Texas create so many jobs?  (Marginal Revolution, Atlantic Business)

Why ZIRP is toxic to the economy.  (Credit Writedowns)

Market-derived measures of inflation expectations are useful, but flawed.  (Liberty Street)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

Betting on the golden/death cross.  (Abnormal Returns)

What you missed in our Tuesday morning linkfest.  (Abnormal Returns)

Mixed media

Manchester United is coming public via an IPO in Singapore.  (WSJ, Dealbook)

A stock trading recommended reading list.   (Joe Fahmy)

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