Tuesday links: logic and private equity

Quote of the day

Nate Silver, “To the extent that you can find ways where you’re making predictions, there’s no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don’t know the answer to in advance.”  (Fast Company)

Chart of the day

MSCI 1012 624x303 Tuesday links: logic and private equity

MSCI ($MSCI) shares tank on the news Vanguard is shifting indices.  (ETF Trends)

Markets

Day One notes from the Value Investing Congress.  (market folly, The Reformed Broker, part 2)

David Rosenberg on when to get bullish.  (Money Game)

Investors love I-Bonds.  (Learn Bonds)

Strategy

We are more uncertain about risk than we think we are.  (Kid Dynamite)

How much do you need to trade for a living?  (Brian Lund)

You can’t improve your financial situation until you know where you stand. (Bucks Blog)

Private equity

The private equity industry has more money than they know what to do with.  (Dealbook contra The Epicurean Dealmaker)

Dan Primack, “Logic and private equity aren’t always the best of friends.”  (Fortune)

Finance

Banks are coining money on new mortgage origination.  (FT)

A bank-timing strategy based on the $VIX.  (Falkenblog)

Can securitization save medical R&D?  (Felix Salmon)

Funds

Vanguard is shifting index providers to save a buck or two.  (Focus on Funds)

Behind Schwab’s ($SCHW) move to cut ETF fees to the bone.  (Businessweek)

Passive indices continue to beat up on active mutual fund managers.  (IndexUniverse)

Global

Australia’s central bank cut rates overnight.  (FT Alphaville)

The case for Indonesia.  (Slate)

Economy

Ben Bernanke defends the Fed against “five myths.”  (Money Game, Real Time Economics)

Checking in on the probability of a recession.  (Econbrowser, Calafia Beach Pundit)

The pickup truck indicator is still positive.  (Bespoke via Marketblog)

America needs to give out more green cards.  (Quartz)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

What you missed in our Tuesday morning linkfest.  (Abnormal Returns)

Books

A rave review for Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t.  (Reading the Markets)

What one book Jack Dorsey gives all new Square employees: The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande.  (SAI)

Online

Why are we so rude online?  (WSJ)

Better ergonomics for using your computer.  (The Atlantic)

Why oh why do we have to click so much to see a full article on the web?  (Slate)

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