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Wednesday links: contrarian trendiness

Paul Kedrosky, “It rarely pays to be contrarian. For the most part trends go in the same direction for some time – that’s why they’re called “trends.”  (Infectious Greed contra Sentiment’s Edge)

Amazon (AMZN) is worth as much as Target (TGT) and Costco (COST) combined.  (Peridot Capitalist also Crossing Wall Street)

Joshua M. Brown, “Trying to formulate an intermediate-term opinion on a stock right now is like building a house on quicksand.”  (The Reformed Broker)

John Paulson is bullish on equities.  (DealBook, Fund My Mutual Fund)

Jeff Miller, “Briefly put, one trader can sell to another and both can be correct in terms of their proven and successful strategies.”  (A Dash of Insight)

Actively managed ETFs keep on coming to market.  Does anybody care?  (IndexUniverse)

Hedge funds have an up November and now top $2 trillion in assets.  (WSJ, DealBook)

Why are the big gold mining companies having such a tough time generating free cash flow?  (The Money Game)

What do deviations from put-call parity tell us about coming earnings announcements?  (SSRN)

Some elements, like PIK bonds, popular during the credit bubble are back.  (WSJ)

“While merger arb funds seem to have lost their knack for down-side mitigation, they haven’t lost their alpha-producing abilities altogether.”  (All About Alpha)

How hedge fund compensation envy helped drive the financial crisis.  (Ironfire Capital)

The UK looks to a super-tax on banker bonuses.  Is the US next?  (NYTimes, Deal Journal, Felix Salmon, Rational Irrationality)

Post-downgrade Greece has got issues.  (FT Alphaville, MarketBeat)

Why extend the TARP?  Because it is there.  (24/7 Wall St.)

Barry Ritholtz, “It seems that Tall Paul is getting frustrated with the lack of any financial reforms.”  (Big Picture also Real Time Economics)

How long will the Fed keep rates this low?  Goldman vs. Morgan Stanley.  (The Money Game, Calculated Risk)

Mark Thoma, “What will happen if the deficit continues to expand, and this begins to put upward pressure on interest rates?”  (Maximum Utility)

The economic recovery is not proceeding with fits and starts.  (Nancy Miller)

Small business is in an unprecedented slump.  (Atlantic Business)

Employee turnover has dropped dramatically as jobs get tougher to find.  (Calculated Risk, EconomPic Data, Atlantic Business)

A transaction tax would “gravely wound financial markets.”  (WSJ)

Felix Salmon, “There’s no doubt that the present way that banks do business in America is broken.”  (Reuters)

James Montier’s investment reading list.  (World Beta)

Rumors abound that the Apple Tablet is coming in March 2010.  (AppleInsider, Silicon Alley Insider)

On the deadweight costs of gift giving.  (Slate)

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