Mark Hulbert at Marketwatch.com takes a skeptical look at the claim that October is in some way a “turnaround” month for the equity markets.
Hulbert notes that October is not the month with the worst performance, that dubious honor belongs to September. Nor does October have any higher probability of generating market lows.
In other words, there is no reason to endow October’s lows with special significance. Insofar as there is any historical support for the idea that this month’s lows will be a good buying opportunity, then there is equal or greater support for a similar conclusion applied to a number of months too.
There are always a myriad of influences on the stock market at any point in time. Seasonality appears to be one of them, however betting that October is some sort of ‘special’ month is probably a mistake.