The Buttonwood column at Economist.com asks this very question. Signs of financial distress are accumulating in a number of different channels.

And finally the markets themselves are suggesting that all’s not for the best in this best of possible worlds. In the past few weeks, equity and bond markets have sold off, emerging markets ditto, high yield bonds’ spreads over Treasuries have widened a bit and equity volatility has finally stirred from its lengthy snooze. There is typically some correlation between higher volatility and wider bond spreads, and between spreads and default rates, though it is unclear what leads what. So are we now heading definitely for the door?

The column notes that a few more “accidents” like Refco could tip the balance towards a tigher supply of credit and higher overall spreads.

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Please see the Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.