There is something to said for hearing from global macro managers in that they have a global view of the capital markets. In an interview with Barronâs, Chuck Clough of Clough Capital Partners, opines on the world capital markets.
Clough manages two closed-end funds (GLV & GLQ) that have seen strong returns this year. A few of the areas Clough is focusing on include: North American natural gas producers, Japan, and the emerging markets. These selections have have outperformed this year and have a whiff of momentum to them.
As a former Wall Street strategist Clough has a healthy disdain for market forecasts:
And his outlook for the market? Clough sighs. âWhat I miss the least is making the market predictions. It was a silly exercise. And I wasnât very good at it.â?
Still, he adds, âThis is dullest market you and I have lived through. The S&P was at 1200 in 1998, and itâs at 1200 now. It will be 1200 in 2009. We have a $55 trillion capital market in the U.S. and nominal gross domestic product is $12 trillion. A $12 trillion GDP has to huff and puff awfully hard to create high returns on $55 trillion on financial assets. The return will be fairly disappointing.â?
Yet there is still money to be made. âThere are two huge migrations of capital: One from the developed world to the developing world, because returns on investment are higher there, and another is building consumer goods and infrastructure in the developing world. The real question is where will the investment opportunities be?â?
Random Roger read the same interview and has some interesting questions about the funds Clough manages. This includes why one of Cloughâs funds is trading at a premium and both have seemingly high dividend yields. If one is at all interested in Cloughâs two funds read Rogerâs comments first.