The release of Fed meeting minutes had quite an impact on the markets yesterday. However does the market believe the Fed’s interest rate hikes have reached an end?
Despite the Fed’s seeming change in posture, the Fed funds futures market still overwhelmingly expects at least one more rate hike. macroblog’s calculations show a probability of over 80% for a 25 bp hike at the January meeting.
John M. Berry in Bloomberg.com thinks the Fed is nearing the end of their series of rate hikes. As always the fears of inflation taking hold will hold the key to any further rate hikes. However don’t expect the changing Fed chairmanship to have much, if any, role in the Fed’s policy.
There is no reason to expect the change in the chairmanship to have any predictable impact on when to stop raising rates. After all, Bernanke has endorsed Greenspan’s so-called risk management approach to monetary policy, and that is exactly what the 13 rate increases — soon to be 14 — have been all about: managing risk.