One explanation behind the overall reduction in equity market volatility has been the general decline in the volatility of the overall economy. Recessions are now far less frequent than used to be and have recently been far less severe. As we near a turning point in the economy, and a potential end to the current Fed interest rate campaign, the volume level has been turned up on the economic debate. As economic uncertainty increases it could very well increase equity market volatility.

The only economic certainties at this point seems to be uncertainty. A sampling of Internet-based opinion follows:

Daniel Gross at asks the question: Are we heading into a recession? He looks at the opinion of those forecasters he calls the “Gloom & Doom caucus.” Gross cautions us to take any economic forecast with a large grain of salt.

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street looks through the “blurry mirror” that is government economic statistics, specifically GDP revisions.

James Picerno at the Capital Spectator looks at the ominous effects that higher inflation numbers may have on the Fed’s plan for an orderly economic slowdown.

Ticker Sense notes an uptick in searches for the term, “stagflation.” Um, that can’t be a good thing, can it?

Kim Clark at notes the pinch that higher inflation may have on (record) corporate profit margins.

While it is not strictly an economic indicator, Barry Ritholtz notes an ominous turn down in the transportation stocks.

In a prior post we noted the less than positive signal that the yield curve is emitting.

Increasing equity market volatility would be distressing to a large swath of longer term investors. However for a certain segment of investors who thrive on volatility, like certain hedge funds and volatility traders like Adam Warner, this could very well be a boon.

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Please see the Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.