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Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture looks at the nuances of using sentiment data, and how many “proto-contrarians” get it wrong.

Mark Hulbert at notes that positive bond market sentiment is as high as it has been in the past five years.

Ticker Sense shows bond ETFs and defensive equity sector ETFs are particularly overbought.

Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed looks at how investors are often times slow to respond to change in geopolitical risk.

Ticker Sense also has a neat graph showing analyst price targets for various commodities.

Adam Warner at the Daily Options Report weighs in on the volatility of commodity names.

In a prior post we discussed the prospect for corporate earnings. CXO Advisory Group reviews a paper that shows “…operating earnings are the best simple indicator of stock market valuation.”

Random Roger puts into a (portfolio) perspective how can use so-called “speculative” ETFs.

Accrued Interest delves into the debate on the value of TIPs-derived inflation estimates.

James Picerno at the Capital Spectator looks at what has happened to junk bond spreads in light of the bond market rally.

Greg Mankiw examines some reasons why real wages and productivity data do not always line up in the data.

DealBook highlights some Merrill Lynch research on some small and medium sized buyout candidates.

Going Private speculates on the potential relationship between IPO location, liquidity and insider trading. John Carney at likes the piece as well.

DealBook notes that mergers and acquisitions are still the preferred way for private equity firms to exit an investment.

Roger Ehrenberg at Information Arbitrage on what it takes to run a viable social bookmarking site.

As far as industry trends go, we are particularly interested in the potential for “air taxis.” Joe Sharkey in the New York Times reports on one company’s plans.

What hath fantasy football wrought? (via Mental Floss)

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