Bespoke Investment Group examines what happens in the stock market subsequent to a 2% up day.

Mark Hulbert at does not yet see an excess of optimism in investor sentiment.

Paul Murphy at FT Alphaville examines the notion of “One of the biggest arbitrage trades in financial market history.”

How much can the government expect to raise from a “carried interest” tax? Not much. (via Deal Journal)

How much are Blackstone’s partners saving in taxes by going public? Alot. (via

John Carney at on why you should not trust the public pronouncements of private equity execs when they discuss going public. writes “Not all triple-A ratings inspire total confidence.”

Calculated Risk has an assortment of “rating agency miscellany.”

Serena Ng and Tom Lauricella at on the slump in leveraged loans and the risk to the buyout boom.

Jeff Miller at A Dash of Insight on the challenges of “try(ing) to infer odds from sparse data…”

Adam Warner at the Daily Options Report on the dangers of playing “deep in the moneys” full-tilt. writes “…Investors are not always rational and markets are not always efficient. But, judging by the subprime saga, spotting those irrational moments is no easier than it ever was.”

Ewww. (via Going Private)

Speaking of ewww, Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street has extracted “Rahodeb’s Greatest Hits.”

Julia Werdigier at on the push into “exotic assets” as a means of diversification.

Mebane Faber at World Beta on the various ways alternative assets are becoming more available to investors.

Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser wonders whether we are at a “tipping point for the Dollar”?

“The Yield Curve: Better at Predicting Slumps in the Durable Goods Sector Than at Predicting Recessions” (FRB Dallas via Economist’s View)

Josh Wright at Truth on the Market wonders just how tough do academic dissenters from “free market economics” really have it? on research showing a stronger link between wealth and happiness than previously expected.

Rick Morrissey at on why MLB will not likely let Mark Cuban join their club by purchasing the Chicago Cubs.

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