Calculated Risk on why the “ several quarters are probably the most vulnerable to an economic recession.”

Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser highlights dueling recession probability forecasts.

Bespoke Investment Group on whether a month of negative jobs growth implies an economic recession. on the “plumbing” of the banking system and what the central banks need to do to ease the credit crunch.

Jeff Miller at A Dash of Insight on who know more about housing woes, the market or the Fed.

FT Alphaville asks “So what’s the deal with Citigroup’s SIVs?”

Alea on how Basel II capital rules have subsequently affected the ABCP market.

CXO Advisory Group on the challenges of exploiting a “rare and unpredictable” market signal.

William Hutchings and Mark Cobley at note some prominent hedge fund of fund managers are diving into the “stalled” bank-loan market.

Scott Patterson and Anita Raghavan at with a profile of quant caught up in the ‘quant meltdown’ and its aftermath.

Yves Smith at naked capitalism doesn’t think the above article is the Journal’s best work.

DealBook on how Goldman Sachs (GS) wrung a $300 million profit from their quant hedge fund debacle.

Justin Fox at on why professional investors are just as vulnerable to fits of irrationality and panic as the rest of us.

All About Alpha on how hedge funds outside of the U.S. and Europe have performed during the credit crisis.

breakingviews on why Warren Buffett may need a long term time horizon to profit from his railroad stock investments.

Jason Zweig at on the challenge of balancing portfolio diversification versus concentration.

Adam Warner at the Daily Options Reports on how the investment blogospher is (and should be) a meritocracy.

Andrew C. Revkin at on some intriguing evidence into ‘colony collapse disorder’ that is plaguing the American bee population.

Robert X. Cringely, Fred Schruers, Paul Kedrosky, Turley Miller, Om Malik and Kevin Kelleher on Steve Jobs’ iPhone pricing “strategy” and the subsequent (reluctant) rebate.

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