Quote of the day
Bond Girl, “States have a policy crisis on their hands not a debt crisis.” (self-evident)
Chart of the day
Muni bond markets are unsettled at the moment. (Money Game)
Markets
The rise in US Treasury yields is attracting attention. (Street Sweep, FT Alphaville, The Source)
Tracking cyclical stocks as a ‘risk on’ indicator. (Crossing Wall Street also Money Game)
Until you see a set up in selling pressure the bull market remains intact. (Trader’s Narrative)
Introducing a language-based fear index. (VIX and More, MarketPsych)
How play the deflation of the correlation bubble. (FT Alphaville)
There is no correlation between accurate forecasts and guru attention. (CXO Advisory Group)
Commodities
The gold/silver ratio is plumbing the bottom of a long standing trading range. (Bespoke, Crossing Wall Street)
Speculators hold record commodity futures positions. (WSJ)
Keep an eye on the stealthy rise in crude oil prices and the potential negative effects on the economy. (AR Screencast)
The economics of electric trucks. (WSJ also NYTimes)
Strategy and Tactics
Conserve your mental capital by not trying to trade the “ping-pong action.” (The Minimalist Trader)
Breaking a trading rule often leads to additional mistakes. (Trader Habits)
“When you are trading momentum stocks, it’s far more important to focus on the story, and what the market perceives as the story, than it is to focus on the specific valuation metrics. ” (Leigh Drogen)
Eric Falkenstein, “In real time when you lose money it isn’t seen as risk that pulled a bad number from the urn of chance, but a bone-headed mistake, especially when you don’t have a benchmark.” (Falkenblog)
When stock are highly correlated (like now) it is tough for long-short hedge funds to generate option-like payoffs. (All About Alpha)
Portfolio protection on a budget. (Options for Rookies)
How to become a professional value investor. (Gannon on Investing)
Companies
What Costco (COST) earnings tell us about the state of the economy. (Crossing Wall Street)
An old school conglomerate Fortune Brands (FO) plans a breakup. (WSJ, Dealbook, Deal Journal, 24/7 Wall St.)
Is there anybody left to buy Apple (AAPL)? (Apple 2.0)
Steve Jobs: CEO of the decade. (Marketwatch)
A lot of chatter about the departure of the Netflix (NFLX) CFO. (Bespoke)
Finance
For a number of reasons junk bond default rates have plunged in 2010. (Calafia Beach Pundit)
Why banks oppose fair value accounting. (Aleph Blog)
Why banks don’t write in simple English. (Felix Salmon)
David Einhorn as a conscience of Wall Street. (Deal Journal)
Not extending the Build America Bonds program would be a big mistake, especially for California. (Bruce Krasting, FT Alphaville, Money & Co.)
Another (Chinese) Internet IPO boom is here. (FT Alphaville)
Economy
The rise in expected inflation implies an early end to QE2. (Calafia Beach Pundit)
Where the jobs are (and aren’t). (Free exchange also EconomPic Data)
How big a stimulus will the tax deal provide. (NYTimes, Macroadvisers, Felix Salmon, Rortybomb)
Clarifying what the tax deal really means for unemployment benefits. (Calculated Risk, Kid Dynamite, NetNet)
Is consumer deleveraging now over? (Pragmatic Capitalism also EconomPic Data)
On the non-correlation of monetary base growth and inflation. (Econbrowser)
Video
Gregory Zuckerman on Tech Ticker talking hedge fund performance anxiety. (Big Picture)
Turkey as Europe’s BRIC. (beyondbrics)
All about gold with James Grant, et al. (Charlie Rose via Todd Sullivan also Finance Trends Matter)
Worth a read
Work is getting rewired from the outside in. (Infectious Greed)
An interesting discussion with Scott Patterson, author of The Quants. (Big Picture)
The behemoth that is Dealbook. (NY Observer)
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