Seasonality in the markets is an interesting topic. Too bad findings are often presented with little color about their statistical validity. Talk about things like a ‘summer rally’ get spread around with out any additional context, thereby making them, at best, misleading. The challenge for analysts is that we really don’t have nearly enough data to say a lot about seasonality with any great statistical confidence. Ironically there may be more opportunity to take advantage of seasonal trends in less efficient market like that of Russia. In today’s screencast some talk about the statistics of seasonality.
Items mentioned in the above screencast:
There is no summer rally. (Mark Hulbert)
Some other stylized facts about June. (Pragmatic Capitalism)
The Russian stock market exhibits some seasonal trends as well. (beyondbrics)
Russia has underperforming relative the rest of the emerging markets. (StockCharts)