Newly released: Tim Harford’s The Undercover Economist Strikes Back: How to Run or Ruin an Economy and a review from Roger Lowenstein in WSJ.
Quote of the day
Sam Altman, “Value is created by doing.” (Sam Altman via @mattermark)
Chart of the day

The Canadian dollar is sitting at a four-year low. (FT)
Video of the day
Morningstar 2013 Allocation Fund Manager of the Year Steve Romick isn’t find much to buy these days. (Morningstar)
Markets
Trying to put a probability on the chance of a market bubble. (Gavyn Davies)
Market timers are wicked bullish. (The Short Side of Long)
Are bond bears way too bearish? (Sober Look)
Strategy
The evidence for small cap outperformance is strong. (John Authers)
How to avoid overtrading. (Brian Lund)
Is sector rotation a crowded trade? (Systematic Relative Strength)
Companies
Spotting turnarounds is really, really hard. (Crossing Wall Street)
Why is the average tech company shrinking? (Tom Tunguz)
Retail alert: foot traffic continues to trend lower. (WSJ)
What is the long game at Google ($GOOG)? (Asymco)
Finance
PIK debt makes a stunning return to Europe. (FT)
Why Goldman Sachs ($GS) loves Salt Lake City. (Reuters)
ETFs
Bespoke ETFs are now a real thing. (Focus on Funds)
The problem with “passive” portfolios. (Institutional Investor)
Global
Energy is gradually decoupling from economic growth. (FT Alphaville)
Extreme weather is going to make farming an even riskier proposition. (Bloomberg)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
Investment decision making: diversity over biology. (Abnormal Returns)
What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (Abnormal Returns)
Mixed media
Technology will continue to displace jobs, the question is what to do next. (Economist)
Startup valuations keep rising. (Term Sheet)
Brands die slowly, and then suddenly. (Seth Godin)
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