Quote of the Day
"Don’t panic. Don’t overreact. Don’t pretend like you know where things are immediately going. Don’t think that you need to. You don’t."
(Drew Dickson)
Markets
- How often do corrections turn into bear markets? (awealthofcommonsense.com)
- How big was Friday's market move? (priceactionlab.com)
- Markets hate unpredictability. (ft.com)
Rates
- The 10-year Treasury now yield a tick over 4%. (morningstar.com)
- Tariffs finally cracked the junk bond market. (ft.com)
Strategy
- There is no playbook for what is happening. (tker.co)
- You learn your true risk tolerance in a bear market. (blairbellecurve.com)
- Don't kid yourself. You don't know what is coming next. (albertbridgecapital.com)
- A bear market checklist, first do no harm. (morningstar.com)
Government
- If due process can be denied non-citizens, it can be denied to citizens as well. (nytimes.com)
- The logical endpoint of single-party rule is public corruption. (yahoo.com)
- This freshman Congressman campaigned on banning stock trading in Congress. Now he is trading up a storm. (nytimes.com)
Policy
- Good luck trying to fact check DOGE claims. (christianthwaites.substack.com)
- There is no state-level substitute for FEMA. (wapo.st)
- The CDC has been gutted. (wired.com)
- It's a good thing we don't have a cybersecurity problem. (axios.com)
- Don't be surprised if the IRS is soon politicized. (msn.com)
- People don't like seeing their life's work put in the 'wood chipper.' (nytimes.com)
Tariffs
- James Surowiecki, "There is no good economic reason the U.S. should have zero bilateral trade deficits; there is no chance that we will eliminate all of them, and if we did, it would be an economic disaster..." (theatlantic.com)
- It's hard to overstate how big a break with history this new tariff regime is. (msn.com)
- Congress is supposed to set tariff policy, not the President. (scottsumner.substack.com)
- The administration misapplied its own tariff 'formula.' (aei.org)
- Tariffs are another manifestation of Trump's grievances with the world. (axios.com)
- Econ 101, why tariffs raise prices. (marginalrevolution.com)
- A short history of tariffs. (awealthofcommonsense.com)
Manufacturing
- The cost to build a manufacturing facility in the U.S. just went up. (wsj.com)
- Battery and EV manufacturing projects are getting cancelled. (msn.com)
Economy
- How we in the U.S. convinced ourselves that life is so bad that we had to blow things up. (disciplinefunds.com)
- It's time to go on recession watch. (calculatedriskblog.com)
- On the irony of the U.S. importing eggs. (ft.com)
- The economic schedule for the coming week. (calculatedriskblog.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- Top clicks this week on the site. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app)
- Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should be. (abnormalreturns.com)
Mixed media
- Justin Wolfers, "(T)ariffs don’t distort just your buying decisions; they also distort what businesses make." (nytimes.com)
- Daniel Drezner, "Donald Trump is president. There are no adults in the room to constrain him." (danieldrezner.substack.com)
- Peter Wehner, "Trump is an agent of chaos, and chaos has a human cost." (theatlantic.com)
