Quote of the Day
"The people that panicked should be proud when their worst fears fail to materialize. That means they’ve done their job."
(Scott Sumner)
Chart of the Day
The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF ($BWET) is among the best performing ETFs YTD. (chart via YCharts)
Oil
- How much higher will gasoline prices go? (natesilver.net)
- How do higher oil prices affect the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com)
Prediction markets
- The Kalshi and Polymarket CEOs are very public-facing. (npr.org)
- Kalshi is now targeting women as customers. (wsj.com)
- Betting on war is not a good look. (npr.org)
Private assets
- The stocks of the big private asset managers are feeling the pain. (awealthofcommonsense.com)
- Robinhood Ventures Fund 1 ($RVI) traded down on its debut. (pitchbook.com)
Companies
- Costco ($COST) wants to pass tariff refunds onto consumers. (axios.com)
- Even Nvidia ($NVDA) caves on some pretty basic DEI stuff. (linkedin.com)
- Which software companies are most at-risk from AI? (tomtunguz.com)
AI policy
- The U.S. is letting the chips fall where they may when it comes to AI. (om.co)
- If AI is a weapon, why don't we regulate it? (noahpinion.blog)
ICE
Law and order
- The justice system has a shortage of public defenders. (theconversation.com)
- The path to a Trump pardon for the wealthy is now well worn. (nytimes.com)
- The courts have been the only effective way to push back against the administration's actions. (thebulwark.com)
- Nine law firms failed the test. Four did not. (wsj.com)
Government
- The administration says it can't process tariff refunds. (axios.com)
- Kari Lake's tenure at U.S. Agency for Global Media was ruled improper. (politico.com)
- Every administration has conflicts of interest, but Trump 2.0 is unique. (propublica.org)
- The Federal government isn't supposed to condition employment on political beliefs... (popular.info)
Iran
- The administration keeps coming up with new justifications for the Iran war. (theatlantic.com)
- The U.S. sank an Iranian ship returning from an international exercise in the Indian Ocean. (newrepublic.com)
- The U.S. also apparently blew up an Iranian elementary school. (yahoo.com)
- The Kurds are not a solution to the war in Iran. (thebulwark.com)
Economics
- The story around young adult employment and AI is still being written. (agglomerations.substack.com)
- The American tax system has a problem. (econofact.org)
- Can policy move the needle on low fertility? (crr.bc.edu)
Economy
- GDP nowcasts have shifted down in light of the war. (econbrowser.com)
- Net unauthorized immigration flows have turned negative. (apolloacademy.com)
- The economic schedule for the coming week. (economicweekly.substack.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Don't miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)
