Richard Ferri, “Truth be told, market predictions aren’t about the markets; they’re about marketing.”  (Forbes)

Carl Richards, “Well, the reality is that investing is NOT physics because markets have feelings.” (Behavior Gap)

Bullish individual investors bounce back.  (Pragmatic Capitalism)

The nature of high yield bond holders has changed over time.  (FT Alphaville)

So you think you’re a contrarian?  (Derek Hernquist)

On the need for a “probabilistic mind-set” when trading.  (CrossHairs Trader)

Tail risk, smooth returns and investor democracy.  (Abnormal Returns)

An options premium strategy for a range-bound market.  (Milk Trader)

John Paulson apparently isn’t perfect.  (Fortune also Bloomberg)

Great chart showing the roll yield on commodities over time.  (EconomPic Data)

Interest in MLPs is now distressingly high. (IndexUniverse)

Why buying on the open may be a bad idea.  (SSRN also AR Screencast)

On the value of piggybacking on Warren Buffett’s trades.  (CXO Advisory Group)

Welcome to life as a public company KKR (KKR).  Shares down on the day.  (peHUB)

Pre-settlement Goldman got 80% of its revenues from “trading and principal investments.”  (Economist)

Details of the Goldman Sachs (GS)-SEC settlement.  (WSJ, NYTimes, DealBook)

Goldman:  1, SEC 0.   (Felix Salmon, ibid, The Reformed Broker, naked capitalism, CNBC, footnoted, Clusterstock, FT, Zero Hedge, Daniel Drezner, 24/7 Wall St., The Daily Beast)

Maybe not, some reasons why the SEC won.  (naked capitalism, Street Sweep)

Who steered you wrong on Goldman?  (Big Picture also Jeff Matthews)

Financial regulatory reform will depend in large part on the skill of future regulators.  (NYBooks, FT Alphaville, Ezra Klein, The Balance Sheet)

“Moreover, behavior in financial markets is subject to strong selection effects based on past performance, and if deviating from psychologically normal behavior pays off consistently, such behavior will proliferate.”  (Rajiv Sethi)

Evidence that the Baltic Dry Index is missing out on global economic trends.  (The Money Game)

Consumer sentiment plunges and the ECRI comes in flat.  (Marketwatch, Reuters)

No consumer inflation here.  (Calculated Risk, FT)

An unemployment rate paradox.  (macroblog)

Fed asset purchases had global effects.  (FT Alphaville)

Look to private sector health to determine a country’s sovereign risk says Edward Altman.  (NYTimes)

What’s going on with the Euro?  (MarketBeat)

Euro productivity slips amidst the sovereign credit crisis.  (Real Time Economics)

BP (BP) stops the oil leak, for now.  (Bloomberg, BBC)

The state of the venture capital industry.  (Both Sides of the Table)

Why is the market skeptical of Google (GOOG)?  (Above the Crowd)

Nokia (NOK) made a mistake in not buying Palm.  (SAI)

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is spending big on capital.  (BusinessWeek)

Apple (AAPL) knew of antennae issues, but will not recall the iPhone 4.  Software update provides a more accurate signal. (WSJ, Fortune 2.0, A Dash of Insight)

Michael Mauboussin on the challenges of disentangling skill and luck.  (Legg Mason via Simoleon Sense)

A couple of summer reading lists.  (GigaOM, FT Alphaville)

Wise words to read over the weekend.  (The Reformed Broker)

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