Book review: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Garnder is a “must read book” for everyone sick of the “guru model.” (Reading the Markets)
Quote of the Day
"Apple Music’s interface is too cluttered. Functionality is hampered. And this scares me, Apple was once a fountain of innovation. But now that it’s protecting its past, it’s screwed."
(Bob Lefsetz)
Chart of the Day
What does probability mean in your profession? In this case, investment banking.
Markets
- Falling margin debt is a potential market headwind. (jlfmi.tumblr.com)
- Speaking of headwinds let's talk about earnings. (businessinsider.com)
- Peak Coal is already here. (oilprice.com)
- Are credit markets signaling more pain for equities? (seeitmarket.com)
- A look at MLP seasonality. (sl-advisors.com)
Strategy
- Good forecasters think in probabilities not binary events. (blogs.wsj.com)
- Do you want to be right or make money? (stockcharts.com)
- Monish Pabrai really likes Fiat, GM ($GM) and Google ($GOOG). (frenzel-herzing.com)
- Tom Brakke, "Neither the qualitative experts nor the quantitative models are any good at judging how we will behave together when we are surprised." (rp-pieces.com)
- In praise of portfolio inertia. (ft.com)
Offers
- Modern Trader Magazine—the essential journal for professional traders and active investors. Check out this special subscription offer including a free investment classic! (moderntrader.com)
- The new Amazon ($AMZN) Fire TV is a worthy competitor to the Apple TV. (amzn.to)
- With Karma Go from @yourKarma you can take WiFi with you everywhere. Use my code for $10 off yours! (yourkarma.com)
Companies
- Walt Mossberg, "It’s time for U.S. mobile carriers to focus on being first-class networks, not second-rate retailers and app developers." (recode.net)
- If you think stock buybacks are being done for your benefit think again. (barrons.com)
Finance
- David Merkel, "Only a tiny fraction of all the assets in the world trade on any given day." (alephblog.com)
- MIT is leading Yale over the past decade. (blogs.wsj.com)
- Why hedge funds are playing in the startup space. (institutionalinvestor.com)
- On the dangers of a deal, delayed. (jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com)
Economy
- Will global weakness bring down the US economy? (dashofinsight.com)
- It took awhile but Americans are driving again. (calculatedriskblog.com)
- Why is hiring so slow? (economy.com)
- A succinct summary of the economic week that was. (ritholtz.com)
- The economic schedule for the coming week. (calculatedriskblog.com)
Earlier on Abormal Returns
- Top clicks this week on the site. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you may have missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- A round-up of the book-related links from the past month. (abnormalreturns.com)
- A special offer from ETFreplay.com for Abnormal Returns readers. (abnormalreturns.com)
