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Quote of the Day
"Very few “expert” forecasters will talk about their misses. And they all have lots of misses."
(Robert Seawright)
Markets
- 80 things learned about investing in 2019 including "The stock market is one of the few places where as the price of an asset increases, more people want to own it and buy it even higher." (medium.com)
- 10 things that will most assuredly happen in 2020. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)
- Chart crime alert! Sexing up events that are marginal at best. (ftalphaville.ft.com)
Forecasts
- There’s almost zero correlation between strategist predictions and how the market actually behaves. (crossingwallstreet.com)
- What analysts were expecting for Apple ($AAPL) stock a year ago. (asymco.com)
Turnarounds
- Zynga's ($ZNGA) turnaround is complete. (bnnbloomberg.ca)
- Which is surprising given most CEO turnover doesn't change much. (axios.com)
Finance
- It took 50 years, but stock commissions are now effectively zero. (finance.yahoo.com)
- A big year didn't do much to improve the funding status of corporate pension funds. (institutionalinvestor.com)
Bond funds
- 2019 was a big year for muni bond inflows. (wsj.com)
- Vanguard is taking share in actively managed bond funds. (riabiz.com)
Alternatives
- Should the hurdle to invest in private assets be $0 or $100 million in assets? (morningstar.com)
- Hedge fund fees are in secular decline. (institutionalinvestor.com)
Meat
- Have we reached 'Peak Meat'? If not now, when? (ft.com)
- Meat is the poster child, but researchers are still figuring out the environmental impact of various food choices. (marketwatch.com)
- Labels are restrictive. Why simply eating less meat is important. (nytimes.com)
Global
- More residents are thinking of leaving Hong Kong for good. (nytimes.com)
- Academic freedom at Chinese universities is getting curtailed even further. (wsj.com)
Manhattan real estate
- Manhattan real estate did NOT have a good 2019. (wsj.com)
- How much of Manhattan's real estate woes have to do with the wealthy fleeing for lower tax states? (ft.com)
Economy
- The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in December falling to 47.2. (calculatedriskblog.com)
- The US consumer is in pretty good shape. (thereformedbroker.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- Podcast links: misunderstanding money. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Startup links: begin again. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Monthly ESG links: shareholder dollars. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Stop wasting time. (abnormalreturns.com)
Mixed media
- Some cheerful trends from the 2010s including "Investment in green energy far, far exceeded investment in fossil fuels." (reasonstobecheerful.world)
- 10 important lessons from the 2010s including "Attention is limited and fragile and must be managed." (markmanson.net)
- A list of 'best of the decade' lists. (kottke.org)
